New historical minimum for the lion. BNR: It enters the normal sphere. What could destabilize the course

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“We are in the same scenario that I mentioned last week. Probably new balances are being sought on all regional currencies and, consequently, we also have this evolution of the leu exchange rate. But, if we look at the actual figures, beyond the statistical record we record, today’s evolution was, again, a small one, since the depreciation was 0.1%, below a penny. So, from this point of view, we have to understand that these are normal developments in a market, of course, in the context in which we do not set a record every day.

Today it happened, but it is a statistical record and we do not necessarily see a continuation of tensions that will lead to significant depreciation from one day to the next “, explained to Digi24 Dan Suciu, the BNR spokesman.

“If we look at a longer scenario, on a longer evolution of the exchange rate, to see the amplitude, if it exists, since the beginning of the year we have a depreciation of the leu against the euro of 1.6%, the figure is very small. It falls within the realm of normalcy. Of course, the direction is determined by the economic crisis situation we are going through and that is why we have depreciation. But if we look at the other regional currencies, in order to understand the small amplitude of the exchange rate depreciation, we see that in the case of the forint we have a depreciation of 8.8% from the beginning of the year, and at the level of the zloty of 4.5% “, he added.

Asked if the period before the elections Romania is going through has any influence on the exchange rate, Suciu answered: “Certainly the political situation always influences the exchange rate in one way or another. The uncertainty that can result – it is not necessarily the electoral process that generates this, on the contrary – but the uncertainty that arises through various statements can not bring stability from this point of view, even if today, I repeat, is rather a continuation of developments past weeks ”.

In Suciu’s opinion, the depreciation of the exchange rate was very low, even if Romania had a crisis situation.

“We see no reason to have other than small variations during this period, if we are still moderate in terms of public policies in Romania,” he said.

Asked whether the resumption of the 40% increase in pensions in Parliament could influence the exchange rate. Suciu said: “Yes, it is one of the factors that can greatly disturb the balances that the lion is now trying to consolidate in one way or another. Obviously, these things are worrying and, if things go in this direction, it is those additional elements that can influence the evolution of the course, unfortunately in a direction that we do not want ”.

And Prime Minister Ludovic Orban says that there was a stability of the exchange rate, even if Romania went through the crisis generated by COVID.

“There are times when there is pressure on the course. I am convinced that the NBR will be able to maintain a relative stability of the exchange rate. Our concern was to ensure macroeconomic balances, “he said.


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